In 2021, the North of Tyne Combined Authority (NTCA) commissioned the Energy Savings Trust (EST), in partnership with Accelar and Frontier Economics, to develop a robust evidence base to inform the business case for a large-scale housing retrofit programme.
A retrofit assessment was performed to provide insight into the potential job opportunities associated with required retrofit. This work indicates that activity to reach net zero by 2050 has the potential to support between 1,500 and 3,500 full-time equivalents (FTEs) in the retrofitting sector in the North of Tyne. However, the scale of investment required is vast – up to £13bn.
The evidence base for retrofit in North of Tyne demonstrates that:
- Over 60% of the housing stock falls below an EPC band of C and more than 85% of homes use gas or oil as their main heating fuel.
- Local retrofit rates across the NTCA will need to ramp up quickly. The Net Zero 2030 scenario will require over 80,000 homes to be retrofitted per year by 2027; more than 10 times the current rate.
- The cost of achieving the Net Zero scenario will require an estimated £13bn in funding, beyond BAU funding sources (e.g., current and forthcoming grant funding).
- Electrifying heat through the mass deployment of heat pumps alone will not enable the NTCA to achieve net zero by 2030, due to residual fossil fuel generation in the grid.
- A net zero retrofit approach can deliver significant energy efficiency gains, improving the NTCA stock from an average of SAP band D to a high B.